Monday, October 16, 2006

The Portals of Tomorrow....

Yahoo is in deep trouble.

They are in the process of getting SMOKED by Google.

Google has been continually taking market share, valuation, as well as advertising dollars from Yahoo's bottom line.

I believe Yahoo will be acquired, within the next few months.

Portals (as we have known them) will cease to exist in the format we have become accustomed to. America Online, Yahoo, and MSN are in the midst of -- MASSIVE UPHEAVAL, on both the technology, infrastructure, consumer, and most of all -- THE CONTENT FRONT.

There is a HUGE WAR going on, in regards to the largest players on the internet - that will shape the future - as it pertains to, YOUR MEDIA CONSUMPTION. (How you will use your computer online.)

Possible Suitors for Yahoo.

AT&T or Comcast.? -- (they have the pipes and need the content)

News Corp or Disney or GE? (they have the content and 2 out of 3 of these companies are rooted in the offline media business)

AOL or MSN? (they know the value of Yahoo, but can they combine their cultures into their established internet businesses?)

A dark horse? (Google, dont think anti-trust will allow this one to pass, but it just may)

Fred Wilson piece titled, "Who Should Buy Yahoo!" is a excellent piece, as it breaks down the companies as well as competitors who may be in-line for a bite of Yahoo's empire.....

Is it not a little weird to think that Yahoo is "old school"?

I mean with all the Web 2.0 hype, and the buzz around "Social Media" -- is it too late for Yahoo to make a resurgence, and recapture it's preminent position as the "Pioneer" of the Internet?

Yes, it is too late.


In one word: Google.

Google has a $129 Billion Dollar Market Cap.
Yahoo! has a $34 Billion Dollar Market Cap.

Google is innovative, and has taken one, GIANT STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION -- and THEN, and only then, it branched off into other avenues of online marketing. (video, network, email, shareware)

The one Giant Step that Google executed on? SEARCH AND KEYWORD MARKETING FOR ADVERTISERS. Google delivers results. Plain and simple, marketers want to work with Google.

Yahoo has instead focused on many other avenues to acquire marketing dollars -- but over time, has EXCELLED AT PRECIOUS LITTLE......BUT RATHER RELIED ON IT'S BRAND NAME, FOR JUSTIFICATION AS TO WHY IT SHOULD BE INCLUDED ON MANY RFP'S FROM ADVERTISING AGENCIES.

Yahoo has become a political machine, with employees leaving in droves - and marketers dissapointed with the delivery from Y's operations....

"The situation at Yahoo may have been exacerbated by employees leaving over the last year, particularly in its ad sales force, May said. "Whenever you have that sort of turnover, particularly in your sales force, it makes it more difficult to plan around advertiser category softness," he said. "

Google over the past few years has become the unparalleled leader based on, "Return on Investment" marketing (ROI) for advertisers.....

My biggest fear?

MSN buying Yahoo.


Then Google will go unchallenged for years to come. The cost will be to all of us, as it relates to our online experiences.

Creativity and Innovation will be the property of a couple of companies.

And, there will be NO COMPETITION ONLINE...with 2 behemoths running this thing called, "the web." Google will win again.

People a few years back called the web, "the wild west" -- and it still may be.

But, when you wake up in the morning (in the not too distant future) - and hear the news that Yahoo has been purchased, understand that, THE INTERNET HAS CHANGED DRASTICALLY.

The balance of power is shifting away from, WHAT MADE THE WEB GREAT.

Innovation, freedom, and creativity -- will be being replaced soon.....

By Billion Dollar Companies that DO NOT HAVE roots, in the internet.

Except one company that does : Google.

Too much influence and power is evolving towards, VERY FEW players.

A eery reminder of history's valuable lesson from 100+ years ago.



Blogger pretzelgreg said...

Great Post. Just remember that aquisition is not innovation...MS and Google's deep pockets will continue to FOSTER innovation in that they provide the big payday that the more entrepreneurial developers are working towards. Boys pick up guitars to get rich, famous and get girls--they can and will always be able to do the same with their laptops, regardless of whom is signing the checks.

4:50 PM  

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