Wednesday, May 10, 2006


Hype.....and a Bet.

I rarely apologize in the first sentence of a post. (or 3rd paragraph).

But, I feel I must.

I apologize.

I shorted Google.

Overvalued, hype, fraud, are none of the reasons, that I bet on Google stock going downhill.

My main reason has little to do with any of those reasons.

"Comeuppance" is more like it.

Its time. Humble pie is on the horizon.

The company will still be great. It is a pioneer on the web, its massively profitable, and has smart people.

They are just too, "cocky" for my blood.

Recent interactions with them, have led me to believe that this "confident, holier than thou" attitude, may be systemic.

The tone of a rep, who's voice said, "hey, we ARE Google, we don't need your business, or your headache...if you don't do business with us, big deal."

If I'm picking up that vibe, well, I may not be alone....

It may not be, its just a hunch.

But, I have to go with my gut.

My gut tells me that they are "due" for a stepback, or a setback.

Some people say they have become the "barometer" for all things online....

I disagree.

I bought into this stock soon after the IPO, and I'm proud of their runup.

My gut is telling me a "mild correction" is coming.....it will slide from its plateau of four hundred dollars per share......

I'm betting on it, and I apologize.

Andy
39318 feet up, 592 MPH, over Raleigh, NC.
Sent from my BlackBerry wireless handheld.

3 Comments:

Anonymous CMacDaddy said...

You felt the same way about Yahoo when you walked me through their offices 9 years ago...still have the tee-shirt.

11:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have been in the equities business for 12 yrs.

In my opinion, I would agree, this is a classic example of of an over inflated stock that is about to get beaten down. It is just a matter of time.

Hang in there, the ride should be fun

12:17 PM  
Blogger Rob said...

Andy - if you've read The Power Broker - about Robert Moses he started out very altruistic and once he gained so much power he was completely out of control and everything came tumbling down.

6:31 AM  

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